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peng wensheng: in may, pmi drop transfer economic growth kinetic energy shortage

2017-10-20

abstract:
pmi at the end of five months of continuous rise and fall sharply, to approximate systolic interval, and the pmi index has been 7 consecutive months in the systolic interval, conveying the growth kinetic energy shortage clear signal. following is the report of gold content.
in may pmi dropped 2.9percentage points, ended before5 months of continuous rising momentum, and once again approaching the manufacturing industry expansion and cutoff interval. 1-4 month, business of industry of countrywide dimensions above realizes profit fell1.6%, drop again expanded 0.3 percentage points; the april monthly profit of2.2% year-on-year decline, reversing march's 4.5% increase compared to the same period. the display changes in manufacturing expansion force has not yet hit bottom, future economic growth may be delayed to allow. at the same time,5-7manufacturing industry into the production of off-season; especially in may pmi index in the past7 years without exception are lower than in april, on average by2.7 percentage points. this month 2.9percentage point decline reflects seasonal factors.
from partial index, manufacturing industry demand and production synchronization presents obvious weak, coupled with early policy to support strength weaker than the market expected, causes the enterprise investment is not strong and to inventory, deleveraging pressures persist. therefore, we predict the industrial added value growth rate following the april slowed sharply after may, will only recovered slightly to 9.5%.
production fell sharply, new orders into the systolic interval. in may the production and new orders index all appears to drop considerably, which produced an index of over5 consecutive months of increases sharply, down 4.3 percentage points to 52.9%, new orders index following last month slightly lower this month after dropped 4.7percentage points to 49.8%, for the first time in 4months to fall into the systolic interval. manufacturing production in new orders index phenomenon has continued for more than 1 year